Chapter 7 discusses the “lumpy” aspect of emerging technology markets and ways to analyze and expand into other markets. A technology or product exists in a set of technology barriers, so finding ways to push the barriers can increase a company’s market share. Customers also value different attributes of the product higher than others, so understanding what attributes are important to customers and then exploiting that preference increases market share as well. Emerging technology markets are especially hard to predict because in this lumpy, changing, market scenery it must be decided what market and what attributes will derive the most benefit from the technology. Success with an emerging technology comes when the technology facilitates an improvement in the most favored set of attributes by the market. Companies need to understand the market and the lumpiness they are dealing with and strive to extend the barriers, either by looking for a technology to do so, or looking for a market to introduce a technology into.
Pushing Technology Barriers
Understanding the intersection between market segments and barriers created by the current technology, companies can use an emerging technology to expand the barriers and reach more customers. By expanding or eliminating barriers, companies can access markets that were previously out of reach and may still be out of reach by competitors. Also, when emerging technologies can create demand for new attribute sets, new customers can be acquired as well.
Identifying Valuable Technologies
To understand what technologies would be profitable for a market, the lumpiness of the market must be identified and understood. Attributes, most favored and valuation impact and technology barriers impact on market segments and attributes must be known. There are three different customer responses to attributes – basic, discriminators, and energize features, and by identifying a company’s current attributes, they can be categorized into valued attributes and ones that could be adjusted using emerging technology to provide more value and gain more customers. Once the attributes are scoped out, a company can look at what technology constraints are currently stopping the company from delivering the attributes. Companies can also look at what barriers might be present in the future. Understanding the current and future barriers makes it easier to identify or look for technology that will facilitate expanding the barrier to reach more customers. Market lumpiness is not static due to customer’s changing needs and wants, so by making small investments and employing options reasoning, a company can account for the changing atmosphere. Companies can position options – identify ways to extend barriers by looking for a technology to do so, or scout options – identify ways a technology will create attributes of value.
Identifying Positioning Options to Exploit Lumpy Markets
A company who wants to use technology to expand its barriers and enter new markets has three options to do so.
Single Niche Domination – A company extends a barrier and is now able to market a better product to a single market segment. This should be used when competition cannot provide better attributes because of technology barriers. The first company to use and emerging technology to provide a better product and extend that barrier will capture and control that niche.
Niche Fusion – A company identifies a technology that will change the current technology barriers and allow for the fusion of multiple market segments. That company will then dominate and capture those market segments. This should be used when the rate of performance improvement is sharp compared to alternatives.
Creating a New Technology Envelope – A company changes the attribute sets, usually by introducing an emerging technology. This radical change forces the competition to quickly adjust or go out of business, since the customers have transferred over to the new attributes and may not be interested in the old product or technology.
Identifying Scouting Options for Applying New Technologies
To be successful with this approach, companies must find attributes that can be created and improved by the emerging technology. The company then needs to determine what market segments would value the new or improved attributes the most. The attributes have to be measurable and dimensional, so by researching what dimensions the emerging technology will have an impact on will help determine what segment to market. Understanding what attributes the emerging technology will change and understanding how the customers view the attribute and their reaction to any changes will help a company choose the right market segment.
The lumpy market is just another facet in the complex and ambiguous nature of emerging technologies. Disrupting a technology barrier by introducing a new technology can provide huge benefits to a company, but can only be done when the lumpiness of the market and different customer segments is understood. Learning about the different segments and attributes that each segment values the most is key to being able to exploit the barriers and create improved attributes. A company can either look for a technology to facilitate expanding the barrier, or look for a market where their technology will expand the barrier. If done successfully, either option will yield more customers and increased profitability.
The book says in relation to creating a new technology envelope, “the Internet is putting conventional telephone network operators on edge.” I would have to disagree with that now, while VoIP has taken off in the business world (and decreased the use of PBX systems); it has not really become popular in the residential world (at least yet). Cell phones however, are displacing regular “land lines” and taking business away from the “telephone network operators.” The technology of cellular communication, not requiring a land line, has taken significant market share away from the conventional telephone companies.
Netbooks are a good example of the concepts presented in this chapter. By creating a very portable and very inexpensive laptop, companies are now able to reach a new market segment that previously did not own a laptop due to price. Customers who were not willing to pay a lot for a computer and do not have high computing demands can use a netbook. This customer segment in the past probably either owned a desktop (due to price) or no computer at all (due to low computing needs and price). By introducing the netbook into these segments, the main attribute of price can be decreased enough that this customer segment is now willing to purchase a computer/laptop.
Monday, April 6, 2009
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Wharton Chapter 6 – Assessing Future Markets of New Technologies
Chapter 6 examines yet another unique problem to emerging technologies – assessment of future markets. When a technology is still emerging there might not be a market for it, and potential customers may not know about it. There is uncertainty too if the technology will be successful in any market, and there is no historical data on the technology or the market to help make decisions. Chapter 6 discusses approaches, best practices, and methodologies that can be used to decipher potential market for emerging technologies.
There are three main principles that guide successful assessments of future markets.
Diffusion and adoption
Each technology follows its own unique path and timeframe to adoption. This is because the rate to adoption is heavily influenced by the perceived advantage over existing products or alternatives, the risk of buying the new technology, different barriers to adoption, and customer awareness of the product. The diffusion process is dynamic, affected by competition and prices, innovation and development of the technology, and investments in marketing and customer awareness. The number of customers who adopt the technology and product determines the diffusion speed. Understanding the five different customer groups (innovators, early adopters, early majority, and laggards) also impacts the diffusion rate. Successfully marketing the technology differently depending on the different customer segments and different customer needs will increase the rate of mainstream adoption.
Exploration and learning
Successful companies make informed decisions through learning about potential markets ahead of their competitors. By using market probing techniques and refining the product and learning from every result, they can make quicker, more informed decisions. A probe and learn, or iterative sequence will further expand knowledge of potential markets by learning from past results and allowing to integrate them into the future. A market inquiry is the beginning of a very active and dynamic process of collecting information on potential customers and needs, making decisions and applying constraints, and experimenting with beta products. In the early stages, alternatives can be evaluated, and different standards can be evaluated. Once substantial information has been gathered, it needs to be evaluated before a decision to act can be reached. Barriers to acquiring information, disseminated information, and using information have to be overcome to be successful.
Triangulation for insights
Exploring all possibilities using different research methods, using different data, and looking for a convergence of conclusions is needed when the customers and markets are still unknown. Emerging technologies, especially disruptive ones, cannot be evaluated using the standard methods used in other areas of business. There is not one method to use, but a collaboration of methods and results will yield the most informed results. Customers may have a hard time grasping the concept of a new technology, so gathering information about customer needs and usage will be more rewarding than studying customer’s reaction to a new prototype. Studying lead users can help identify needs that a new product may satisfy. Lead users understand the problem they are facing, and may have an idea of a technology or product that can fix it. They may have experimented with a solution already, they may be working with similar products already, and they can be involved with areas of the problem. They can be a great tool for understating the “pain” and helping develop a viable solution. Emerging technologies can solve problems customers do not know they have, so problem identification, story-telling, and observation of customers and markets can yield potential markets for a technology. By studying the inflections of the adoption of the technology and anticipating them, companies can gain the competitive advantage over their competitors. While there is no way to be exact, methodical guesswork, tracking leading indicators, information acceleration, and diffusion modeling can provide information on the rate of diffusion on a technology.
Emerging technologies are ambiguous and disruptive, so they require a unique approach to anticipate future markets. Intense information is needed to assess customer needs, customer problems, and possible rate of adoption of a technology. There is no single strategy that will yield results on its own, so by using a combination of tools and methods, a company can gain competitive advantage by having the best information into potential markets and anticipating critical inflection points.
Looking outside the box and focusing on the potential of the technology in different markets with different customers and needs is critical to success. Chapter 6 offered some general methods to do so, but with the ambiguous nature of emerging technologies it would still be extremely difficult to predict. I think that this is where one of the core concepts of emerging technologies comes into play – staying flexible in strategic ways. Not only does a company need to stay flexible with the initial development of a technology, but expanding into future markets and researching future needs of customers and uses of the technology would also require a flexible but strategic company.
RFID tags are an example of an emerging technology that has evolved through many different markets. Initially, they were used for inventory purposes (made popular by Walmart), and even thought to be potentially disruptive to barcode technology. Now RFID is moving away from inventory into different markets, such as human and animal tracking. State and Federal Correction departments are starting to use the technology because it automates processes and eliminates human errors. RFID tags are also being used on endangered species and other animals to help gain knowledge and better understand their behavior. RFID tags may not have been extremely successful in the early markets of inventory, but they are certainly becoming more widespread in different markets and will continue to grow into other uses.
References
http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9024960
http://www.discoverrfid.org/how-it-works/facts-and-figures.html
There are three main principles that guide successful assessments of future markets.
Diffusion and adoption
Each technology follows its own unique path and timeframe to adoption. This is because the rate to adoption is heavily influenced by the perceived advantage over existing products or alternatives, the risk of buying the new technology, different barriers to adoption, and customer awareness of the product. The diffusion process is dynamic, affected by competition and prices, innovation and development of the technology, and investments in marketing and customer awareness. The number of customers who adopt the technology and product determines the diffusion speed. Understanding the five different customer groups (innovators, early adopters, early majority, and laggards) also impacts the diffusion rate. Successfully marketing the technology differently depending on the different customer segments and different customer needs will increase the rate of mainstream adoption.
Exploration and learning
Successful companies make informed decisions through learning about potential markets ahead of their competitors. By using market probing techniques and refining the product and learning from every result, they can make quicker, more informed decisions. A probe and learn, or iterative sequence will further expand knowledge of potential markets by learning from past results and allowing to integrate them into the future. A market inquiry is the beginning of a very active and dynamic process of collecting information on potential customers and needs, making decisions and applying constraints, and experimenting with beta products. In the early stages, alternatives can be evaluated, and different standards can be evaluated. Once substantial information has been gathered, it needs to be evaluated before a decision to act can be reached. Barriers to acquiring information, disseminated information, and using information have to be overcome to be successful.
Triangulation for insights
Exploring all possibilities using different research methods, using different data, and looking for a convergence of conclusions is needed when the customers and markets are still unknown. Emerging technologies, especially disruptive ones, cannot be evaluated using the standard methods used in other areas of business. There is not one method to use, but a collaboration of methods and results will yield the most informed results. Customers may have a hard time grasping the concept of a new technology, so gathering information about customer needs and usage will be more rewarding than studying customer’s reaction to a new prototype. Studying lead users can help identify needs that a new product may satisfy. Lead users understand the problem they are facing, and may have an idea of a technology or product that can fix it. They may have experimented with a solution already, they may be working with similar products already, and they can be involved with areas of the problem. They can be a great tool for understating the “pain” and helping develop a viable solution. Emerging technologies can solve problems customers do not know they have, so problem identification, story-telling, and observation of customers and markets can yield potential markets for a technology. By studying the inflections of the adoption of the technology and anticipating them, companies can gain the competitive advantage over their competitors. While there is no way to be exact, methodical guesswork, tracking leading indicators, information acceleration, and diffusion modeling can provide information on the rate of diffusion on a technology.
Emerging technologies are ambiguous and disruptive, so they require a unique approach to anticipate future markets. Intense information is needed to assess customer needs, customer problems, and possible rate of adoption of a technology. There is no single strategy that will yield results on its own, so by using a combination of tools and methods, a company can gain competitive advantage by having the best information into potential markets and anticipating critical inflection points.
Looking outside the box and focusing on the potential of the technology in different markets with different customers and needs is critical to success. Chapter 6 offered some general methods to do so, but with the ambiguous nature of emerging technologies it would still be extremely difficult to predict. I think that this is where one of the core concepts of emerging technologies comes into play – staying flexible in strategic ways. Not only does a company need to stay flexible with the initial development of a technology, but expanding into future markets and researching future needs of customers and uses of the technology would also require a flexible but strategic company.
RFID tags are an example of an emerging technology that has evolved through many different markets. Initially, they were used for inventory purposes (made popular by Walmart), and even thought to be potentially disruptive to barcode technology. Now RFID is moving away from inventory into different markets, such as human and animal tracking. State and Federal Correction departments are starting to use the technology because it automates processes and eliminates human errors. RFID tags are also being used on endangered species and other animals to help gain knowledge and better understand their behavior. RFID tags may not have been extremely successful in the early markets of inventory, but they are certainly becoming more widespread in different markets and will continue to grow into other uses.
References
http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9024960
http://www.discoverrfid.org/how-it-works/facts-and-figures.html
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Wharton Chapter 5
Wharton Chapter 5 discusses the government's role in emerging technologies. Despite the negative image of government restricting innovation and hindering the emerging technology process, government can play a very monumental and beneficial role, as illustrated by the development of the Internet. Wharton identifies seven general ways the government can impact an emerging technology:
Military Technology – Encourages new technologies that the government and military can benefit from.
-Research Infrastructure – Government invests in general research and encourages the findings to be shared
-Institutional Infrastructure – Government provides public and legal institutions to foster or prohibit emerging technologies
-Standard setting – Although standards are usually set by the market, the Government can step in and establish a technology standard.
-Government Regulation – This is especially influential in the medical field with the regulation by The Food and Drug Administration.
-Government Directives – the Government does not fund any technologies, but takes a direct role in influencing the commercialization efforts
-Government Subsidies – Government directly support different firms and technologies.
Wharton continues the chapter with 10 different lessons for managers regarding government interaction with emerging technologies.
-Government can help shape a new technology in the beginning – look outside the box and focus on future application of the technology
-If the Government withdraws research support, beneficiaries of the support will resist – managers can either push for continued support, or position themselves to somehow benefit from the Government withdrawal
-Government can help transition from public to private “ownership” of a technology b- transition periods are great opportunities to gain a competitive advantage
-New technologies can cause social concerns – companies must be prepared to defend their stance and technology, and political demands can turn into profit opportunities
-Disruptions caused by the technology will be met with legal and political reactions – managers must look at the broad spectrum for any possible implications caused by the new technology
-A high demand technology will create demands for government-regulated universal service – this can translate into protection from market competition
-Quality of service should be regulated by the market, but dominant firms sometimes make the mistake of providing poor customer service – managers need to recognize the importance of customer service and customer satisfaction, no matter what market position the firm is in
-The power of individual firms may need to a monopoly, in which case the government may step in and try to regulate – companies need to encourage fair competition or they might face regulation from the government
-Bottleneck markets may result in the government stepping in to address the issue of the vertical integration of conduit and content – companies must once again need to encourage fair competition across the entire market or risk facing regulation from the government
-Government regulation can have unintended side efforts and possibly even negatively impact the commercialization of the technology – companies should strive for minimal regulation, if any.
The Government has the ability to affect an emerging technology in every stage of development.
Managers and companies must be aware of the potential impact from the government, and stay proactive by operating fairly and competitively in the market. By anticipating possible regulation earlier on in the technology development, a company will be more prepared to respond quickly. Companies can benefit from the interaction of government and a technology, they just need to be prepared and proactive in the process.
GPS (Global Positioning System) is an example of a technology that was evolved from the original technology and been used in many different markets. In 1993, the U.S. Air Force launched the first network of 24 satellites, known as GPS. The GPS technology was created from a combination of engineering and scientific advances, specifically the atomic clock. The technical evolution of the atomic clock and the GPS follows the speciation patterns of emerging technologies, but the Government influence and regulation also played a huge part in the GPS product we use today.
GPS was originally designed by the Department of Defense strictly for military use. The companies that helped create the GPS technology recognized the huge potential in the commercial market, and finally the Pentagon allowed use of the technology in the commercial market. Use was allowed under a policy called “selective availability,” which meant that the military and other authorized users would be given the most accurate broadcast signals. The Pentagon also reserved the ability to interfere with any civilian signals if they so chose to.
In 1996 however, the White House decided to open up the higher level of GPS accuracy to everyone. The federal government also communicated their commitment to “providing GPS services for peaceful civil, commercial, and scientific use on a worldwide basis and free of charge.”
Now we can find some sort of GPS unit in a wide variety of devices – cell phones, wireless cards, car navigation systems, etc. One of the news articles we talked about was the Google Latitude system, which is a GPS application for your mobile phone or PC that shows your “friends” positions. This has caused concern over privacy issues, so I can't help but wonder if the government may step in again with some sort of privacy regulation or legislation?
http://www.beyonddiscovery.org/content/view.article.asp?a=458
www.google.com/latitude
Military Technology – Encourages new technologies that the government and military can benefit from.
-Research Infrastructure – Government invests in general research and encourages the findings to be shared
-Institutional Infrastructure – Government provides public and legal institutions to foster or prohibit emerging technologies
-Standard setting – Although standards are usually set by the market, the Government can step in and establish a technology standard.
-Government Regulation – This is especially influential in the medical field with the regulation by The Food and Drug Administration.
-Government Directives – the Government does not fund any technologies, but takes a direct role in influencing the commercialization efforts
-Government Subsidies – Government directly support different firms and technologies.
Wharton continues the chapter with 10 different lessons for managers regarding government interaction with emerging technologies.
-Government can help shape a new technology in the beginning – look outside the box and focus on future application of the technology
-If the Government withdraws research support, beneficiaries of the support will resist – managers can either push for continued support, or position themselves to somehow benefit from the Government withdrawal
-Government can help transition from public to private “ownership” of a technology b- transition periods are great opportunities to gain a competitive advantage
-New technologies can cause social concerns – companies must be prepared to defend their stance and technology, and political demands can turn into profit opportunities
-Disruptions caused by the technology will be met with legal and political reactions – managers must look at the broad spectrum for any possible implications caused by the new technology
-A high demand technology will create demands for government-regulated universal service – this can translate into protection from market competition
-Quality of service should be regulated by the market, but dominant firms sometimes make the mistake of providing poor customer service – managers need to recognize the importance of customer service and customer satisfaction, no matter what market position the firm is in
-The power of individual firms may need to a monopoly, in which case the government may step in and try to regulate – companies need to encourage fair competition or they might face regulation from the government
-Bottleneck markets may result in the government stepping in to address the issue of the vertical integration of conduit and content – companies must once again need to encourage fair competition across the entire market or risk facing regulation from the government
-Government regulation can have unintended side efforts and possibly even negatively impact the commercialization of the technology – companies should strive for minimal regulation, if any.
The Government has the ability to affect an emerging technology in every stage of development.
Managers and companies must be aware of the potential impact from the government, and stay proactive by operating fairly and competitively in the market. By anticipating possible regulation earlier on in the technology development, a company will be more prepared to respond quickly. Companies can benefit from the interaction of government and a technology, they just need to be prepared and proactive in the process.
GPS (Global Positioning System) is an example of a technology that was evolved from the original technology and been used in many different markets. In 1993, the U.S. Air Force launched the first network of 24 satellites, known as GPS. The GPS technology was created from a combination of engineering and scientific advances, specifically the atomic clock. The technical evolution of the atomic clock and the GPS follows the speciation patterns of emerging technologies, but the Government influence and regulation also played a huge part in the GPS product we use today.
GPS was originally designed by the Department of Defense strictly for military use. The companies that helped create the GPS technology recognized the huge potential in the commercial market, and finally the Pentagon allowed use of the technology in the commercial market. Use was allowed under a policy called “selective availability,” which meant that the military and other authorized users would be given the most accurate broadcast signals. The Pentagon also reserved the ability to interfere with any civilian signals if they so chose to.
In 1996 however, the White House decided to open up the higher level of GPS accuracy to everyone. The federal government also communicated their commitment to “providing GPS services for peaceful civil, commercial, and scientific use on a worldwide basis and free of charge.”
Now we can find some sort of GPS unit in a wide variety of devices – cell phones, wireless cards, car navigation systems, etc. One of the news articles we talked about was the Google Latitude system, which is a GPS application for your mobile phone or PC that shows your “friends” positions. This has caused concern over privacy issues, so I can't help but wonder if the government may step in again with some sort of privacy regulation or legislation?
http://www.beyonddiscovery.org/content/view.article.asp?a=458
www.google.com/latitude
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Wharton Chapters 3 and 4
Wharton Chapter 3
In Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies Chapter 3, the evolution of technologies is given the name “technology speciation.” Existing technologies are shifted to a new domain of application, where the technology evolves to become dominant and accepted in a manner different than the original application. The underlying technology may stay the same and only the application from the original is different. Not all emerging technologies follow this pattern, but for the ones that do (the Internet is the example Wharton uses) there are different paths a technology can follow.
An emerging technology can derive from the original technology, where the technology is changed to adapt to the new niche market. The new technology fills a distinct need present in the market and the high demand fuels a high supply of resources that support the development of the new technology. Emerging technologies can also have a slower path to mainstream acceptance, with gradual evolution and replacement (creative destruction) of the existing product. Finally, emerging technologies can be the result of convergence (two existing technologies combined to form a new product and applied in the current domain) or fusion (two existing technologies combined to form a new product and applied in a new domain). Whatever path an emerging technology follows, the domain it is initially applied in is usually a small, specialized niche, and then moves into larger, broader niches as it becomes more popular.
Wharton offers some suggestions on how managers can use the technological speciation process to their advantage by actively moving it forward instead of waiting for it to happen naturally. They include evaluating a technology in possible markets and in possible applications, focusing on the best market for the product (as opposed to a product for a specific market), understanding consumer habits in different markets, creating more variety in selection criteria, studying requirements of high-end users, evaluating the sources of feedback, engage in market learning, look for convergence or fusion opportunities, and accelerating the evolution process of the technology when applicable.
The Internet was enhanced with a user-friendly HTML interface by Netscape, and while the basic technology didn’t change much, the interface enabled the technology to move into the commercial market where it became enormously successful. So, when working with emerging technologies, managers need to evaluate implementing a current technology, with or without changes, in a different area. Technologies experience evolution and transformation, so introducing the technology into a different arena may be all it needs to make it successful.
Wharton Chapter 4
The ambiguous nature, rapid rate of change, and high risk associated with emerging technologies requires a more flexible technology assessment technique than most traditional models today. Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies Chapter Four discusses four steps, scoping, searching, evaluating, and committing, that a technology assessment should involve when pertaining to emerging technologies.
Scoping involves limiting the extent of the technology assessment to only include technologies that fit within the context of the company’s strategic plan and goals. The company’s resources, core competencies, and willingness to change will also help define the scope of the assessment. While the scope may be larger than what the company can currently handle, potential markets and customers will be identified and evaluated. The scope statement will be updated and changed as the evaluation process continues.
Once a company has defined the scope, it can begin evaluating where and how to look for new technologies. Internal discoveries, public sources of information, and technology literature are all good sources to help a company determine what new technologies are available. With the large quantities of new technology ideas and products today, it is important to examine the signals surrounding the technologies. This includes patent information, competitor’s actions and information about a technology, informal network information, and convergence and multiple discoveries. When a company has defined the scope and identified what technologies to investigate, each of the technologies needs to be evaluated against the company’s strategy. Each possible technology must be evaluated in terms of the possible market and needs, and the company’s ability to leverage the technology. The market risk, organizational risk, and technology risk must also be assessed. Also the financial, organizational, and competitive impact of adopting the technology needs to be addressed as well.
After all the options have been carefully evaluated, there are four general commitment strategies a company can follow when adopting an emerging technology. The first one is a more conservative, watch and wait strategy to use when the risk of the technology is too high to immediately pursue or when the company can become a fast follower if the technology succeeds. The second strategy is when the risk and uncertainty are a little less and the company wants to be in a position to develop the technology when more information is gathered. The third strategy is for a company that has decided to invest in an emerging technology but decides to follow instead of lead the commercialization of the technology. The last strategy is for a company that is confident enough with an emerging technology to fully commit resources and actively lead the technology to commercialization.
The nature of emerging technologies not only requires them to be managed differently; it requires the different technology options to be assessed differently as well. Emerging technologies require a dynamic, iterative process involving constant improvement and self-correction. There will always be a higher level of uncertainty and risk, but by adapting the technology assessment to reflect the unique nature of emerging technologies, companies can be more successful in picking the right technology to pursue.
Emerging technologies that are successful have wide-spread effects, not only in the anticipated markets but also in far reaching, seemingly unrelated markets. An emerging technology can enhance a current product’s functionality, or it can change it so it meets another market’s needs. Even if a technology is not successful or adopted when expected, there are still future possibilities in markets that haven’t been created yet.
Monsanto is still around and successful in the business of seeds, biotechnology trait products, and herbicides. One of their major products is “Roundup.” Even though they have been met with criticism over pesticide issues, bio-engineered corn (“frankenfood”), and growth hormones, the move to the biotech industry has suited them well. Their websites states that they “apply innovation and technology to help farmers around the world produce more while conserving more.”
An example of a product/technology that has followed the technology speciation and undergone several iterations and enhancements as new technologies are created is the air bag. It was first created in 1953 when a need to keep people from ejecting from their car in an accident was identified. Shortly after that the major automotive businesses (Ford and General Motors) started looking at adopting the design and concept for their products. The design predominant design that resulted was better than nothing, but it still lacked the ability to sense a collision and deploy quickly. In the 1969 a federal law requiring 'automatic occupant protection systems’ prompted the invention of the first electromechanical automotive airbag system. Since the emergence and adoption of nanotechnology and microelectromechanical system technologies, the airbag has gained even more popularity and continues to benefit from the fusion of new emerging technologies.
References
Day, George and Schoemaker, Paul. (2000). Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wily & Sons, Inc.
McCormick, Lisa. (2006 September). A Short History of the Airbag. Retrieved February 21, 2009 from http://www.consumeraffairs.com/news04/2006/airbags/airbags_invented.html
Monsanto. www.Monsanto.com
In Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies Chapter 3, the evolution of technologies is given the name “technology speciation.” Existing technologies are shifted to a new domain of application, where the technology evolves to become dominant and accepted in a manner different than the original application. The underlying technology may stay the same and only the application from the original is different. Not all emerging technologies follow this pattern, but for the ones that do (the Internet is the example Wharton uses) there are different paths a technology can follow.
An emerging technology can derive from the original technology, where the technology is changed to adapt to the new niche market. The new technology fills a distinct need present in the market and the high demand fuels a high supply of resources that support the development of the new technology. Emerging technologies can also have a slower path to mainstream acceptance, with gradual evolution and replacement (creative destruction) of the existing product. Finally, emerging technologies can be the result of convergence (two existing technologies combined to form a new product and applied in the current domain) or fusion (two existing technologies combined to form a new product and applied in a new domain). Whatever path an emerging technology follows, the domain it is initially applied in is usually a small, specialized niche, and then moves into larger, broader niches as it becomes more popular.
Wharton offers some suggestions on how managers can use the technological speciation process to their advantage by actively moving it forward instead of waiting for it to happen naturally. They include evaluating a technology in possible markets and in possible applications, focusing on the best market for the product (as opposed to a product for a specific market), understanding consumer habits in different markets, creating more variety in selection criteria, studying requirements of high-end users, evaluating the sources of feedback, engage in market learning, look for convergence or fusion opportunities, and accelerating the evolution process of the technology when applicable.
The Internet was enhanced with a user-friendly HTML interface by Netscape, and while the basic technology didn’t change much, the interface enabled the technology to move into the commercial market where it became enormously successful. So, when working with emerging technologies, managers need to evaluate implementing a current technology, with or without changes, in a different area. Technologies experience evolution and transformation, so introducing the technology into a different arena may be all it needs to make it successful.
Wharton Chapter 4
The ambiguous nature, rapid rate of change, and high risk associated with emerging technologies requires a more flexible technology assessment technique than most traditional models today. Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies Chapter Four discusses four steps, scoping, searching, evaluating, and committing, that a technology assessment should involve when pertaining to emerging technologies.
Scoping involves limiting the extent of the technology assessment to only include technologies that fit within the context of the company’s strategic plan and goals. The company’s resources, core competencies, and willingness to change will also help define the scope of the assessment. While the scope may be larger than what the company can currently handle, potential markets and customers will be identified and evaluated. The scope statement will be updated and changed as the evaluation process continues.
Once a company has defined the scope, it can begin evaluating where and how to look for new technologies. Internal discoveries, public sources of information, and technology literature are all good sources to help a company determine what new technologies are available. With the large quantities of new technology ideas and products today, it is important to examine the signals surrounding the technologies. This includes patent information, competitor’s actions and information about a technology, informal network information, and convergence and multiple discoveries. When a company has defined the scope and identified what technologies to investigate, each of the technologies needs to be evaluated against the company’s strategy. Each possible technology must be evaluated in terms of the possible market and needs, and the company’s ability to leverage the technology. The market risk, organizational risk, and technology risk must also be assessed. Also the financial, organizational, and competitive impact of adopting the technology needs to be addressed as well.
After all the options have been carefully evaluated, there are four general commitment strategies a company can follow when adopting an emerging technology. The first one is a more conservative, watch and wait strategy to use when the risk of the technology is too high to immediately pursue or when the company can become a fast follower if the technology succeeds. The second strategy is when the risk and uncertainty are a little less and the company wants to be in a position to develop the technology when more information is gathered. The third strategy is for a company that has decided to invest in an emerging technology but decides to follow instead of lead the commercialization of the technology. The last strategy is for a company that is confident enough with an emerging technology to fully commit resources and actively lead the technology to commercialization.
The nature of emerging technologies not only requires them to be managed differently; it requires the different technology options to be assessed differently as well. Emerging technologies require a dynamic, iterative process involving constant improvement and self-correction. There will always be a higher level of uncertainty and risk, but by adapting the technology assessment to reflect the unique nature of emerging technologies, companies can be more successful in picking the right technology to pursue.
Emerging technologies that are successful have wide-spread effects, not only in the anticipated markets but also in far reaching, seemingly unrelated markets. An emerging technology can enhance a current product’s functionality, or it can change it so it meets another market’s needs. Even if a technology is not successful or adopted when expected, there are still future possibilities in markets that haven’t been created yet.
Monsanto is still around and successful in the business of seeds, biotechnology trait products, and herbicides. One of their major products is “Roundup.” Even though they have been met with criticism over pesticide issues, bio-engineered corn (“frankenfood”), and growth hormones, the move to the biotech industry has suited them well. Their websites states that they “apply innovation and technology to help farmers around the world produce more while conserving more.”
An example of a product/technology that has followed the technology speciation and undergone several iterations and enhancements as new technologies are created is the air bag. It was first created in 1953 when a need to keep people from ejecting from their car in an accident was identified. Shortly after that the major automotive businesses (Ford and General Motors) started looking at adopting the design and concept for their products. The design predominant design that resulted was better than nothing, but it still lacked the ability to sense a collision and deploy quickly. In the 1969 a federal law requiring 'automatic occupant protection systems’ prompted the invention of the first electromechanical automotive airbag system. Since the emergence and adoption of nanotechnology and microelectromechanical system technologies, the airbag has gained even more popularity and continues to benefit from the fusion of new emerging technologies.
References
Day, George and Schoemaker, Paul. (2000). Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wily & Sons, Inc.
McCormick, Lisa. (2006 September). A Short History of the Airbag. Retrieved February 21, 2009 from http://www.consumeraffairs.com/news04/2006/airbags/airbags_invented.html
Monsanto. www.Monsanto.com
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Thoughts on Class 2/17
So far I have found MBA 554 to be very interesting. I enjoyed learning about all the new technologies in the WEF 2008 and 2009 readings. Personally I have found Twitter to be very useless, although I can appreciate why some people would use it. For my purposes (which do not include marketing, selling, or advertising anything), it doesn't provide a service that text messaging, Facebook, or Myspace doesn't already provide. While it might be nice to provide people with your status updates, Myspace and Facebook already do that while offering other features that are not available through Twitter. While you cannot update Myspace through SMS messaging, Myspace Mobile is very user-friendly and works well on multiple phones and operating systems. I have found services like Mint.com to be very useful, and I have yet to have any major issues with it.
As for the actual class (specific technologies aside) I enjoy the non-rigid structure and flow of the class. I don't even mind the Wharton book too much, but only when it is in small doses at a time (1 -2 chapters).
As for the actual class (specific technologies aside) I enjoy the non-rigid structure and flow of the class. I don't even mind the Wharton book too much, but only when it is in small doses at a time (1 -2 chapters).
Monday, February 16, 2009
Wharton Chapter 2
Wharton Chapter 2
Chapter 2 in Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies discusses the four most common mistakes established companies make when embracing and managing emerging technologies. Incumbent companies may have an advantage over smaller companies in some ways, but they are also more susceptible to make the mistakes of delayed participation, sticking with the familiar, failure to fully commit, and lack of persistence. However, not all companies have to make these mistakes; there are guidelines to follow when working with new technologies that can help companies be successful.
The ambiguous nature of emerging technologies explains why most companies would want to embrace a “wait and see” mentality about adopting them. It is hard to determine profitability when there is currently little known. Managers and companies should try to focus on the future of the technology and what it has the potential to become instead of what it is currently.
Companies and managers are averse to risk and the unfamiliar, especially when funding, reputations, and profitability are at stake. With emerging technologies, it is easy to steer towards what is known, even though most emerging technologies involve new technologies, new ideas, and new thought processes. Different designs of an emerging technology may evolve, and companies may be faced with which design to adopt. Blue Ray and HD DVD were an example of this, and companies that decided to back the HD DVD lost out when the standard became Blue Ray.
Even when a company does decide to pursue an emerging technology, they may not adopt it with the commitment level needed to be successful. Many companies make the mistake of being too cautious, and they fail to be successful with the emerging technology. Companies may be afraid that an emerging technology will cause one of their existing products to be obsolete (creative destruction), additional funding may be hard to justify when there are no profits yet, and the company may be too busy satisfying their current customer needs to think of future needs and new markets. It is hard to “think outside the box” while trying to keep up with the everyday demands of running and operating a business. Companies are not dynamic by nature, they have their core competencies aligned with the structure and culture within the company, so when an emerging technology comes in it threatens to disrupt the synergy of the business.
If a company has invested in an emerging technology, and successfully adopted it, they can still make the mistake of lack of persistence. Profits are not always realized right away, so many companies may abandon efforts because there are no gains to show right away. The technology is usually new to the market, so profitability can take longer than expected.
Wharton says when dealing with emerging technologies and the mistakes commonly made, “the best defense may be a good offense.” Widening peripheral vision, creating a learning culture, staying flexible in strategic ways, and providing organizational autonomy can be applied to help companies avoid the common mistakes made.
Companies need to stay current with technological trends, and investigate emerging technologies that align with the company’s core competencies. Company’s need to evaluate their customers’ needs, and identify any possible future needs as well. A company must have effective, collaborative, open communication, where learning is a company-wide initiative. If a company is flexible, it is easier to make initial investments in emerging technologies, easier to adapt the business where needed, and also easier to back out if the technology does not prove to be a good fit for the business. Managing real options and fully committing when the level of uncertainty has gone down can only be achieved in a company that is flexible enough to change and modify when needed. Also, removing the emerging technology from the mainstream business can help to cut down on the business mindsets, controls, and other issues that will negatively impact the adoption of the technology.
Every emerging technology is different, so every solution and successful way to integrate it into a business will be different. The above mistakes and guidelines to avoid making the mistakes are broad concepts that can be applied loosely to every company and every emerging technology, although some may work better than others in given situations.
Wharton mentioned Encyclopedia Britannica as a company that was unwilling (at least at first) to move out of their comfort zone of offering print material and offer CD ROM versions. It wasn’t until 1994 when they finally made the first CD-ROM version of the Encyclopaedia Britannica available. Since then it sounds like they have learned their lesson, they are currently embracing technology and the Internet by offering education and reference programs online (which they periodically review and upgrade), as well as offering other reference, material tailored towards students, and professionals. Their mission is “to be the worldwide leader in reference, education, and learning,” and they can’t accomplish that by not embracing the emerging technologies that directly affect their target market.
Ruby Tuesday is an example of a restaurant that continually invests in and researches emerging technologies. They are constantly looking for ways that technology can improve their kitchen operations, reservation system, and webpage. Three years ago they purchased a new software system that provided step by step food preparation for the cooks. While they had a current program in place this new one was Windows-based, in color, and displayed graphics of all the steps. It would completely replace the old one and make it obsolete. Ruby Tuesday was one of the first restaurant chains to purchase and implement the software.
As a result, it eliminated the need for kitchen managers and saved the company in extra staffing expenses, improved customer service, and cut down the average dining time because the food was prepared much quicker than before. It also eliminated the need to print hard copy instructional cooking posters, and saved the company an estimated $1 million a year. Ruby Tuesday had successfully integrated an emerging technology into their business and saved money internally, while providing a higher level of service than their competitors because of the technology.
Regardless of the business, the target market, or the technology, it pays to be a leader. Some companies will be successful and some won’t, but a company will definitely not be successful in managing emerging technologies if they don’t take a chance, early and often.
References:
Day, George and Schoemaker, Paul. (2000). Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wily & Sons, Inc.
Encyclopaedia Britannica. http://corporate.britannica.com/company_info.html
Watson, Brian P. (2007 August). Danger Looms for Late Emerging Tech Adopters. Retrieved February 15 2009 from, http://tech-notes.info/2007/08/21/intelligence-dangers-loom-for-late-emerging-tech-adopters
Chapter 2 in Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies discusses the four most common mistakes established companies make when embracing and managing emerging technologies. Incumbent companies may have an advantage over smaller companies in some ways, but they are also more susceptible to make the mistakes of delayed participation, sticking with the familiar, failure to fully commit, and lack of persistence. However, not all companies have to make these mistakes; there are guidelines to follow when working with new technologies that can help companies be successful.
The ambiguous nature of emerging technologies explains why most companies would want to embrace a “wait and see” mentality about adopting them. It is hard to determine profitability when there is currently little known. Managers and companies should try to focus on the future of the technology and what it has the potential to become instead of what it is currently.
Companies and managers are averse to risk and the unfamiliar, especially when funding, reputations, and profitability are at stake. With emerging technologies, it is easy to steer towards what is known, even though most emerging technologies involve new technologies, new ideas, and new thought processes. Different designs of an emerging technology may evolve, and companies may be faced with which design to adopt. Blue Ray and HD DVD were an example of this, and companies that decided to back the HD DVD lost out when the standard became Blue Ray.
Even when a company does decide to pursue an emerging technology, they may not adopt it with the commitment level needed to be successful. Many companies make the mistake of being too cautious, and they fail to be successful with the emerging technology. Companies may be afraid that an emerging technology will cause one of their existing products to be obsolete (creative destruction), additional funding may be hard to justify when there are no profits yet, and the company may be too busy satisfying their current customer needs to think of future needs and new markets. It is hard to “think outside the box” while trying to keep up with the everyday demands of running and operating a business. Companies are not dynamic by nature, they have their core competencies aligned with the structure and culture within the company, so when an emerging technology comes in it threatens to disrupt the synergy of the business.
If a company has invested in an emerging technology, and successfully adopted it, they can still make the mistake of lack of persistence. Profits are not always realized right away, so many companies may abandon efforts because there are no gains to show right away. The technology is usually new to the market, so profitability can take longer than expected.
Wharton says when dealing with emerging technologies and the mistakes commonly made, “the best defense may be a good offense.” Widening peripheral vision, creating a learning culture, staying flexible in strategic ways, and providing organizational autonomy can be applied to help companies avoid the common mistakes made.
Companies need to stay current with technological trends, and investigate emerging technologies that align with the company’s core competencies. Company’s need to evaluate their customers’ needs, and identify any possible future needs as well. A company must have effective, collaborative, open communication, where learning is a company-wide initiative. If a company is flexible, it is easier to make initial investments in emerging technologies, easier to adapt the business where needed, and also easier to back out if the technology does not prove to be a good fit for the business. Managing real options and fully committing when the level of uncertainty has gone down can only be achieved in a company that is flexible enough to change and modify when needed. Also, removing the emerging technology from the mainstream business can help to cut down on the business mindsets, controls, and other issues that will negatively impact the adoption of the technology.
Every emerging technology is different, so every solution and successful way to integrate it into a business will be different. The above mistakes and guidelines to avoid making the mistakes are broad concepts that can be applied loosely to every company and every emerging technology, although some may work better than others in given situations.
Wharton mentioned Encyclopedia Britannica as a company that was unwilling (at least at first) to move out of their comfort zone of offering print material and offer CD ROM versions. It wasn’t until 1994 when they finally made the first CD-ROM version of the Encyclopaedia Britannica available. Since then it sounds like they have learned their lesson, they are currently embracing technology and the Internet by offering education and reference programs online (which they periodically review and upgrade), as well as offering other reference, material tailored towards students, and professionals. Their mission is “to be the worldwide leader in reference, education, and learning,” and they can’t accomplish that by not embracing the emerging technologies that directly affect their target market.
Ruby Tuesday is an example of a restaurant that continually invests in and researches emerging technologies. They are constantly looking for ways that technology can improve their kitchen operations, reservation system, and webpage. Three years ago they purchased a new software system that provided step by step food preparation for the cooks. While they had a current program in place this new one was Windows-based, in color, and displayed graphics of all the steps. It would completely replace the old one and make it obsolete. Ruby Tuesday was one of the first restaurant chains to purchase and implement the software.
As a result, it eliminated the need for kitchen managers and saved the company in extra staffing expenses, improved customer service, and cut down the average dining time because the food was prepared much quicker than before. It also eliminated the need to print hard copy instructional cooking posters, and saved the company an estimated $1 million a year. Ruby Tuesday had successfully integrated an emerging technology into their business and saved money internally, while providing a higher level of service than their competitors because of the technology.
Regardless of the business, the target market, or the technology, it pays to be a leader. Some companies will be successful and some won’t, but a company will definitely not be successful in managing emerging technologies if they don’t take a chance, early and often.
References:
Day, George and Schoemaker, Paul. (2000). Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wily & Sons, Inc.
Encyclopaedia Britannica. http://corporate.britannica.com/company_info.html
Watson, Brian P. (2007 August). Danger Looms for Late Emerging Tech Adopters. Retrieved February 15 2009 from, http://tech-notes.info/2007/08/21/intelligence-dangers-loom-for-late-emerging-tech-adopters
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Wharton Preface and Chapter One
Summary
Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies discusses the challenges departments, companies, and managers face in regards to managing emerging technologies. Never before have these technologies had such an impact on the way businesses are internally structured and run, technology is analyzed and used, and products are developed for ambiguous markets. An emerging technology is defined by the authors as “science-based innovations that have the potential to create a new industry or transform an existing one. The knowledge base is expanding, the application to existing markets is undergoing innovation, or new markets are being tapped or created.” This book gives a broad, management top down approach to the unique issues present when managing these technologies.
Successfully managing emerging technologies is critical to the success of any company, whether it already has a large presence in the market or whether it is a new entrant. Large companies may have more available resources, financial advantages, and other advantages over smaller, lesser known companies, but when managing emerging technologies that is not always an advantage. Large companies are more inclined to be more resistant to change, unable to gain the skills and knowledge that are needed, and reluctant to take a chance on a new technology that is unproven and new.
With the rate of technological progress accelerating more rapidly than ever before, companies cannot be as successful with the “fast-follower” strategy as they used to be. Companies need to change that mindset and be more proactive as opposed to reactive when embracing emerging technologies. New technologies may not fit into the current core competencies of a business so they made need to adapt to remain competitive. Although the future lifespan and profitability of an existing technology is unknown, there are factors that can be studied and applied to break down some of the ambiguity.
The change needed in the way a business functions and operates has made managing emerging technologies a different game than managing existing technologies. If managers do not recognize that the strategy is different, they will never be able to compete. Shifts in thinking include - a move to a dynamic organizational context, adaptive strategy planning, iterative and informal resource allocation, market exploration, and flexible technology research.
In addition to changing the thought process regarding business practices and existing technologies, businesses must also change the way they move towards adapting emerging technologies. Extensive knowledge in the area of interest, understanding the target market’s needs and habits, experimenting with prototypes or first-generation products, and slowly easing into the market can be employed to help cut down on risk and uncertainty. Also understanding any government rules or regulations affecting the market, using “knowledge networks,” using dynamic planning, and adjusting financial assessments to reflect the future profitability can help as well.
While there are frameworks, approaches, and perspectives to help better manage emerging technologies, there will always be a high level of difficulty and discrepancy. There will always be failures despite proper management, core competencies can be leveraged, but should not hold a business back, risks must be taken but can evaluated first, and while rivalry between companies is increased, collaboration is also embraced. Identifying, understanding, and overcoming or adapting to these challenges is what makes a business successful at managing emerging technologies.
Research Update
I found it interesting that Apple Computer thought it would master the PDA (personal digital assitant) field with the Newton. The Palm Pilot by Palm computing actually moved into the head position, but even since then the market leader has shifted many times. Many different companies have entered the PDA market since then (Sony and HP, to name a few) but with the increase demands for mobile communication, the demand for a PDA is diminishing. This increased demand for communication, email, and the functions of a PDA and the desire have all of these available in one place led to the merging of a cell phone and PDA to create a smartphone or pocket pc. These are devices that offer data capability (for email, web browsing, etc.), full phone and voice features, while managing contacts and calendars. They come in a variety of models and features, full key boards, slide out keyboards, on screen keyboards, touch screens, etc. Palm is one company that has adapted to the new emerging technology of a smartphone, for instance, when I looked at their webpage (http://www.palm.com/) they didn’t even advertise any standard PDA’s. The Homepage and main “Shop” page had only smartphones displayed, and offered many different options - full QWERTY keyboards, no keyboards, Palm OS, Windows OS, touch screens. This a good example of Palm using their core competencies - extensive knowledge of the target market and the way customers use and interact with the product - to their advantage when adapting to the changing environment of PDA to smartphone use.
Analysis
Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies was written in 2000, and since then we’ve seen new products enter and shape the market. While some of the products mentioned in the book are sunseting, or even obsolete these days, I do find it accurate to say that the principles applied to managing the technologies hold true today. This illustrates that even though the future profitability, return, and lifespan of an emerging technology may not be known, there are still standard, non specific (at least in regards to a specific technology) guidelines that can be applied to successfully manage emerging technologies.
Resources
Day, George and Schoemaker, Paul. (2000). Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wily & Sons, Inc.
Zellen, Barry. (2005 Feb 25). PDAs, Phoned & Smart Devices. Retrieved February 10 2009, From http://wirelessinnovator.com/index.php?articleID=4522§ionID=7
Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies discusses the challenges departments, companies, and managers face in regards to managing emerging technologies. Never before have these technologies had such an impact on the way businesses are internally structured and run, technology is analyzed and used, and products are developed for ambiguous markets. An emerging technology is defined by the authors as “science-based innovations that have the potential to create a new industry or transform an existing one. The knowledge base is expanding, the application to existing markets is undergoing innovation, or new markets are being tapped or created.” This book gives a broad, management top down approach to the unique issues present when managing these technologies.
Successfully managing emerging technologies is critical to the success of any company, whether it already has a large presence in the market or whether it is a new entrant. Large companies may have more available resources, financial advantages, and other advantages over smaller, lesser known companies, but when managing emerging technologies that is not always an advantage. Large companies are more inclined to be more resistant to change, unable to gain the skills and knowledge that are needed, and reluctant to take a chance on a new technology that is unproven and new.
With the rate of technological progress accelerating more rapidly than ever before, companies cannot be as successful with the “fast-follower” strategy as they used to be. Companies need to change that mindset and be more proactive as opposed to reactive when embracing emerging technologies. New technologies may not fit into the current core competencies of a business so they made need to adapt to remain competitive. Although the future lifespan and profitability of an existing technology is unknown, there are factors that can be studied and applied to break down some of the ambiguity.
The change needed in the way a business functions and operates has made managing emerging technologies a different game than managing existing technologies. If managers do not recognize that the strategy is different, they will never be able to compete. Shifts in thinking include - a move to a dynamic organizational context, adaptive strategy planning, iterative and informal resource allocation, market exploration, and flexible technology research.
In addition to changing the thought process regarding business practices and existing technologies, businesses must also change the way they move towards adapting emerging technologies. Extensive knowledge in the area of interest, understanding the target market’s needs and habits, experimenting with prototypes or first-generation products, and slowly easing into the market can be employed to help cut down on risk and uncertainty. Also understanding any government rules or regulations affecting the market, using “knowledge networks,” using dynamic planning, and adjusting financial assessments to reflect the future profitability can help as well.
While there are frameworks, approaches, and perspectives to help better manage emerging technologies, there will always be a high level of difficulty and discrepancy. There will always be failures despite proper management, core competencies can be leveraged, but should not hold a business back, risks must be taken but can evaluated first, and while rivalry between companies is increased, collaboration is also embraced. Identifying, understanding, and overcoming or adapting to these challenges is what makes a business successful at managing emerging technologies.
Research Update
I found it interesting that Apple Computer thought it would master the PDA (personal digital assitant) field with the Newton. The Palm Pilot by Palm computing actually moved into the head position, but even since then the market leader has shifted many times. Many different companies have entered the PDA market since then (Sony and HP, to name a few) but with the increase demands for mobile communication, the demand for a PDA is diminishing. This increased demand for communication, email, and the functions of a PDA and the desire have all of these available in one place led to the merging of a cell phone and PDA to create a smartphone or pocket pc. These are devices that offer data capability (for email, web browsing, etc.), full phone and voice features, while managing contacts and calendars. They come in a variety of models and features, full key boards, slide out keyboards, on screen keyboards, touch screens, etc. Palm is one company that has adapted to the new emerging technology of a smartphone, for instance, when I looked at their webpage (http://www.palm.com/) they didn’t even advertise any standard PDA’s. The Homepage and main “Shop” page had only smartphones displayed, and offered many different options - full QWERTY keyboards, no keyboards, Palm OS, Windows OS, touch screens. This a good example of Palm using their core competencies - extensive knowledge of the target market and the way customers use and interact with the product - to their advantage when adapting to the changing environment of PDA to smartphone use.
Analysis
Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies was written in 2000, and since then we’ve seen new products enter and shape the market. While some of the products mentioned in the book are sunseting, or even obsolete these days, I do find it accurate to say that the principles applied to managing the technologies hold true today. This illustrates that even though the future profitability, return, and lifespan of an emerging technology may not be known, there are still standard, non specific (at least in regards to a specific technology) guidelines that can be applied to successfully manage emerging technologies.
Resources
Day, George and Schoemaker, Paul. (2000). Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wily & Sons, Inc.
Zellen, Barry. (2005 Feb 25). PDAs, Phoned & Smart Devices. Retrieved February 10 2009, From http://wirelessinnovator.com/index.php?articleID=4522§ionID=7
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