Chapter 10 uses the challenges faced by the newspaper industry with the growing popularity of the Internet to discuss and demonstrate scenario planning techniques when emerging technologies are involved. As the Internet gains popularity as a source for information distribution, newspapers are faced with preparing for the uncertain future in the rapidly changing business environment. Chapter 10 reviews the various methods of scenario planning when the future is uncertain, and offers solutions for generating possible alternative scenarios and ways to deal with each scenario.
Three major challenges are present when developing scenarios, uncertainty, complexity, and paradigm shift. The ambiguous nature of emerging technologies exacerbates these three areas even more. Scenario planning is different from other methods of planning in that it examines different uncertainties in different ways, explores different outcomes and patterns in relationships, and generates a wide range of alternative scenarios. Scenario planning allows the business to see the relationship between the market and technology that might otherwise be difficult to visualize, especially if the market not does exist in the present. Scenarios can help a business better understand the challenges they face with a technology, and also portray the different technology options a business can choose from.
The chapter presents ten steps in the scenario planning:
1. Identify the main issues that need to be better understood. Identify the scope, timeframe, and different decision variable. Identify and understand any past changes and how they might influence the future.
2. Identify main stakeholders who are affected or have an interest in the issues. Attempt to understand how they will be affected and what influence they may have.
3. Study the future and identify the main forces shaping the future. This is an iterative process that covers social, technological, economic, environmental, and political areas.
4. Identify previously defined elements and trends that will affect the issues identified previously. Understand the relationships between the trends to identify patterns that might have an effect in the future.
5. Identify main uncertainties from the previous list of major issues. Rank the uncertainties on importance and create possible outcomes for each uncertainty. Explain why they matter and how they relate to each other.
6. Select the two most important uncertainties and using a matrix format or other visual representation, examine both uncertainties and their corresponding possible outcomes to create possible scenarios.
7. Evaluate the two scenarios to see if they are plausible and internally consistent. Combinations that are not should be eliminated and new scenarios can be created.
8. Review the revised scenarios and assess how the key stakeholders will react. Through role playing, and discussions with different groups, areas that need more information and research will be identified.
9. When additional research is done, the scenarios can be reviewed again for plausibility and consistency. A quantitative model can be applied to represent the new possible environments and help persuade management of the need for change.
10. After all the scenario planning in complete, the uncertainty ranges of the main issues need to be re-examined and defined under the different scenarios.
Chapter 10 goes on to identify the issues facing modern day newspapers, how to embrace new emerging technologies while remaining competitive and not investing in technology that is not going anywhere.
The chapter also discusses common pitfalls to avoid with scenario planning. Not using signposts to track scenarios, not using diverse inputs, not seeking new strategic options, and not securing management support can cause the entire scenario planning efforts to fail.
There is no way to guarantee accuracy about the future of a technology, but by using scenario planning and the techniques listed in Chapter 10, a business can identify possible alternatives for the future and be better prepared for whatever happens.
I found this chapter interesting in that the struggle of the newspaper industry with in the introduction and rise of the Internet is still relevant and continuing today. The Idaho Statesman has been in the news several times recently for decreasing business (caused by the recession and the impact of the Internet on business), and I think we will continue to see this trend in the future. The Idaho Statesman and other newspapers are trying to remain competitive by getting creative – creating partnerships to cut down costs, offering information online, and pursuing other profit opportunities. A lot of the content online is now free to read (www.ktvb.com and www.idahostateman.com for example), so newspapers are struggling to make up that revenue. Some newspapers have chosen to offer a cheaper pay for use online version, such as The Wall Street Journal.
I know personally that I do not have a newspaper subscription and I have not bought one for years. If I need to advertise or sell something I choose a free alternative, such as Craigslist, to do so. The Internet has so much information available; I honestly cannot imagine paying for the news service I can easily get for free, especially as technology gets more advanced and I can subscribe to RSS feeds, email alerts, Twitter updates, and view everything on my cell phone. My parents and grandparents still subscribe to the local newspapers however, so I wonder if it is generational preference? I think as the Internet and surrounding technology gets more advanced, newspapers will have to struggle even more to adapt and remain competitive.
http://www.ktvb.com/news/business/stories/ktvbn-mar1509-newspapers_part_1.3b59a70d.html
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_27/b3941024.htm
Laura,
ReplyDeleteI am one of those people who have a subscription to the Idaho Statesman. I could not imagine a time when I would not have one. I feel that it is a necessary part of remaining in touch with the rest of the world. Granted, the reporters are not the best and much of the news is not completely unbiased, but at least it is a starting point.
There is nothing else like the actual paper you can read and see regular sections. Most of those items are available online and I am online with many of those same sources of information, but it is just not the same. At the same time, I believe that eventually it may be impossible for papers to be delivered to your door in the same fashion as in the past, but something more than just online news sources must be replaced. Many people are still not able to connect to the Internet and many will never have access and or knowledge to get the same information.
Newspapers all over the country are struggling, but I believe there is a need to keep them around. It would be nice to have some insight from someone in the newspaper business. I also tried to find some information about the Xerox printer that was mentioned 'Pressline' some printer for travelers. Did anyone find anything about that?
Caleb, I agree with you on the point you do not think it is the same to read an article online vs. in a physical newspaper. This applies to me and online books vs. hard copy books. I don't think I would ever own a Kindle because I like to have the physical book in hand vs. reading it on a computer screen. I was thinking about the Sunday paper and all the advertisements and coupons in that issue, and as far as I know there is no one stop website that showcases all that information, is there? You can usually view a stores weekly sales on their website, but if you want to view multiple stores there is no one place to do so.
ReplyDeleteLaura, I definitely agree that a large difference between the online and hard copy preference is generational, for the most part. However, I may be one of the exceptions, whether it is the Idaho Statesman, the WSJ or the USA Today I always prefer to read the paper versions. I think I am becoming more and more the exception there though. (perhaps just Caleb and I) There are times and situations where most people would need the paper version (traveling, camping, etc) Is there an on demand printing opportunity here for a person that can work out the cost of printing a single issue at a time?
ReplyDeleteIf the trend continues and less print newspaper are able to stay in business is there a chance that Internet news sources will beigin to charge because they have less competition?
Laura and all,
ReplyDeleteAccording to the Newspaper Association of America, the number of people employed in the newspaper industry fell by 18% between 1990 and 2004.
However, anyone looking for information has never been better equipped. People no longer have to trust a handful of national papers or, worse, their local city paper. News-aggregation sites such as Google News draw together sources from around the world. The website of Britain's Guardian now has nearly half as many readers in America as it does at home.
One non-profit group, NewAssignment.Net, plans to combine the work of amateurs and professionals to produce investigative stories on the internet. Aptly, $10,000 of cash for the project has come from Craig Newmark, of Craigslist, a group of free classified-advertisement websites that has probably done more than anything to destroy newspapers' income.
Reference
Who killed the Newspaper?(2006,August). Retrieved on April 23, 2009 from http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=7830218
Nick, I think you bring up an interesting point about charging for online content. Some places already do that (WSJ, right?), but while there is still free information available how likely are people to choose the information they have to pay for? Obviously some people will, but I don’t know how large this market is. Advertising is a huge source of revenue for newspapers, so there will still be the issue of making up that revenue online somehow. The Internet popularity has affected the magazine industry as well, and a lot of magazines are now available online. For some of them you still have to have a subscription to log in and read the articles, but the content is there as well. It would be interesting to look at the impact of the Internet on magazines and see what strategies they have used to deal with its growing popularity.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI guess I'm another odd-ball in that I still get the paper; however, I never read it, I picked it up since I enjoy getting the Sunday paper with all the ads & the comics. My wife was irritated that I would pay money to get what was already online free, but for me it was worth the $0.50 a week to get the paper in hard copy and be able to sit on my couch and read the Sunday ads. While I have 5 computers in my house, I don't want to have to sit in front of the computer or read the paper on my projector or TV. While almost all of the ads are on the respective companies website, not only is it harder to read, but it takes more time to navigate to all those sites.
ReplyDeleteA couple things I see as a hope for the newspaper industry are the advertising success of Google, while newspapers would have a hard time charging for access to their websites - there are just too many free options - they can make a tremendous amount of revenue with advertising to support their sites. I also beleive that electronic paper may provide a viable solution for newspapers. People that own a subscription would be able to take their electronic paper with them and get news updates through the day and still have the ease and comfort of a physical product to hold, and while I agree about the Kindle and wanting to hold a book (I do collect books after all) there are many advantages to a solution like this for newspapers - they are easy to read, easy to transport, you don't get the mess of a disorganized paper, you don't get newsprint all over your hands, the pages are easier to turn, you can get updates on the news during the day, and many more.