Wharton Chapters 3 and 4

Wharton Chapter 3
In Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies Chapter 3, the evolution of technologies is given the name “technology speciation.” Existing technologies are shifted to a new domain of application, where the technology evolves to become dominant and accepted in a manner different than the original application. The underlying technology may stay the same and only the application from the original is different. Not all emerging technologies follow this pattern, but for the ones that do (the Internet is the example Wharton uses) there are different paths a technology can follow.
An emerging technology can derive from the original technology, where the technology is changed to adapt to the new niche market. The new technology fills a distinct need present in the market and the high demand fuels a high supply of resources that support the development of the new technology. Emerging technologies can also have a slower path to mainstream acceptance, with gradual evolution and replacement (creative destruction) of the existing product. Finally, emerging technologies can be the result of convergence (two existing technologies combined to form a new product and applied in the current domain) or fusion (two existing technologies combined to form a new product and applied in a new domain). Whatever path an emerging technology follows, the domain it is initially applied in is usually a small, specialized niche, and then moves into larger, broader niches as it becomes more popular.
Wharton offers some suggestions on how managers can use the technological speciation process to their advantage by actively moving it forward instead of waiting for it to happen naturally. They include evaluating a technology in possible markets and in possible applications, focusing on the best market for the product (as opposed to a product for a specific market), understanding consumer habits in different markets, creating more variety in selection criteria, studying requirements of high-end users, evaluating the sources of feedback, engage in market learning, look for convergence or fusion opportunities, and accelerating the evolution process of the technology when applicable.
The Internet was enhanced with a user-friendly HTML interface by Netscape, and while the basic technology didn’t change much, the interface enabled the technology to move into the commercial market where it became enormously successful. So, when working with emerging technologies, managers need to evaluate implementing a current technology, with or without changes, in a different area. Technologies experience evolution and transformation, so introducing the technology into a different arena may be all it needs to make it successful.
Wharton Chapter 4
The ambiguous nature, rapid rate of change, and high risk associated with emerging technologies requires a more flexible technology assessment technique than most traditional models today. Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies Chapter Four discusses four steps, scoping, searching, evaluating, and committing, that a technology assessment should involve when pertaining to emerging technologies.
Scoping involves limiting the extent of the technology assessment to only include technologies that fit within the context of the company’s strategic plan and goals. The company’s resources, core competencies, and willingness to change will also help define the scope of the assessment. While the scope may be larger than what the company can currently handle, potential markets and customers will be identified and evaluated. The scope statement will be updated and changed as the evaluation process continues.
Once a company has defined the scope, it can begin evaluating where and how to look for new technologies. Internal discoveries, public sources of information, and technology literature are all good sources to help a company determine what new technologies are available. With the large quantities of new technology ideas and products today, it is important to examine the signals surrounding the technologies. This includes patent information, competitor’s actions and information about a technology, informal network information, and convergence and multiple discoveries. When a company has defined the scope and identified what technologies to investigate, each of the technologies needs to be evaluated against the company’s strategy. Each possible technology must be evaluated in terms of the possible market and needs, and the company’s ability to leverage the technology. The market risk, organizational risk, and technology risk must also be assessed. Also the financial, organizational, and competitive impact of adopting the technology needs to be addressed as well.
After all the options have been carefully evaluated, there are four general commitment strategies a company can follow when adopting an emerging technology. The first one is a more conservative, watch and wait strategy to use when the risk of the technology is too high to immediately pursue or when the company can become a fast follower if the technology succeeds. The second strategy is when the risk and uncertainty are a little less and the company wants to be in a position to develop the technology when more information is gathered. The third strategy is for a company that has decided to invest in an emerging technology but decides to follow instead of lead the commercialization of the technology. The last strategy is for a company that is confident enough with an emerging technology to fully commit resources and actively lead the technology to commercialization.
The nature of emerging technologies not only requires them to be managed differently; it requires the different technology options to be assessed differently as well. Emerging technologies require a dynamic, iterative process involving constant improvement and self-correction. There will always be a higher level of uncertainty and risk, but by adapting the technology assessment to reflect the unique nature of emerging technologies, companies can be more successful in picking the right technology to pursue.
Emerging technologies that are successful have wide-spread effects, not only in the anticipated markets but also in far reaching, seemingly unrelated markets. An emerging technology can enhance a current product’s functionality, or it can change it so it meets another market’s needs. Even if a technology is not successful or adopted when expected, there are still future possibilities in markets that haven’t been created yet.
Monsanto is still around and successful in the business of seeds, biotechnology trait products, and herbicides. One of their major products is “Roundup.” Even though they have been met with criticism over pesticide issues, bio-engineered corn (“frankenfood”), and growth hormones, the move to the biotech industry has suited them well. Their websites states that they “apply innovation and technology to help farmers around the world produce more while conserving more.”
An example of a product/technology that has followed the technology speciation and undergone several iterations and enhancements as new technologies are created is the air bag. It was first created in 1953 when a need to keep people from ejecting from their car in an accident was identified. Shortly after that the major automotive businesses (Ford and General Motors) started looking at adopting the design and concept for their products. The design predominant design that resulted was better than nothing, but it still lacked the ability to sense a collision and deploy quickly. In the 1969 a federal law requiring 'automatic occupant protection systems’ prompted the invention of the first electromechanical automotive airbag system. Since the emergence and adoption of nanotechnology and microelectromechanical system technologies, the airbag has gained even more popularity and continues to benefit from the fusion of new emerging technologies.

References
Day, George and Schoemaker, Paul. (2000). Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wily & Sons, Inc.
McCormick, Lisa. (2006 September). A Short History of the Airbag. Retrieved February 21, 2009 from http://www.consumeraffairs.com/news04/2006/airbags/airbags_invented.html
Monsanto. www.Monsanto.com